随着可再生能源的延伸升幅,盘中电市场在交易商和电力公用事业中录得不断增长的普及,以应对能源供应的诱导波动。通过其短途交易地平线和持续的性质,盘中市场提供了调整日前市场的交易决策的能力,或者在短期通知中降低交易风险。通过根据当前预测修改其提供的能力,可再生能源的生产者利用盘中市场降低预测风险。然而,由于电网必须保持稳定,电力仅部分可存储,因此市场动态很复杂。因此,需要在盘区市场中运营的强大和智能交易策略。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种基于深度加强学习(DRL)算法的新型自主交易方法作为可能的解决方案。为此目的,我们将盘区贸易塑造为马尔可夫决策问题(MDP),并采用近端策略优化(PPO)算法作为我们的DRL方法。介绍了一种模拟框架,使得连续盘整价格的分辨率提供一分钟步骤。从风园运营商的角度来看,我们在案例研究中测试我们的框架。我们在普通贸易信息旁边包括价格和风险预测。在2018年德国盘区交易结果的测试场景中,我们能够以至少45.24%的改进优于多个基线,显示DRL算法的优势。但是,我们还讨论了DRL代理的局限性和增强功能,以便在未来的工作中提高性能。
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Deep-learning of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is creating highly functional tools that are, unfortunately, as hard to interpret as their natural counterparts. While it is possible to identify functional modules in natural brains using technologies such as fMRI, we do not have at our disposal similarly robust methods for artificial neural networks. Ideally, understanding which parts of an artificial neural network perform what function might help us to address a number of vexing problems in ANN research, such as catastrophic forgetting and overfitting. Furthermore, revealing a network's modularity could improve our trust in them by making these black boxes more transparent. Here we introduce a new information-theoretic concept that proves useful in understanding and analyzing a network's functional modularity: the relay information $I_R$. The relay information measures how much information groups of neurons that participate in a particular function (modules) relay from inputs to outputs. Combined with a greedy search algorithm, relay information can be used to {\em identify} computational modules in neural networks. We also show that the functionality of modules correlates with the amount of relay information they carry.
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Cashews are grown by over 3 million smallholders in more than 40 countries worldwide as a principal source of income. As the third largest cashew producer in Africa, Benin has nearly 200,000 smallholder cashew growers contributing 15% of the country's national export earnings. However, a lack of information on where and how cashew trees grow across the country hinders decision-making that could support increased cashew production and poverty alleviation. By leveraging 2.4-m Planet Basemaps and 0.5-m aerial imagery, newly developed deep learning algorithms, and large-scale ground truth datasets, we successfully produced the first national map of cashew in Benin and characterized the expansion of cashew plantations between 2015 and 2021. In particular, we developed a SpatioTemporal Classification with Attention (STCA) model to map the distribution of cashew plantations, which can fully capture texture information from discriminative time steps during a growing season. We further developed a Clustering Augmented Self-supervised Temporal Classification (CASTC) model to distinguish high-density versus low-density cashew plantations by automatic feature extraction and optimized clustering. Results show that the STCA model has an overall accuracy of 80% and the CASTC model achieved an overall accuracy of 77.9%. We found that the cashew area in Benin has doubled from 2015 to 2021 with 60% of new plantation development coming from cropland or fallow land, while encroachment of cashew plantations into protected areas has increased by 70%. Only half of cashew plantations were high-density in 2021, suggesting high potential for intensification. Our study illustrates the power of combining high-resolution remote sensing imagery and state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms to better understand tree crops in the heterogeneous smallholder landscape.
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Local patterns play an important role in statistical physics as well as in image processing. Two-dimensional ordinal patterns were studied by Ribeiro et al. who determined permutation entropy and complexity in order to classify paintings and images of liquid crystals. Here we find that the 2 by 2 patterns of neighboring pixels come in three types. The statistics of these types, expressed by two parameters, contains the relevant information to describe and distinguish textures. The parameters are most stable and informative for isotropic structures.
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It is well known that conservative mechanical systems exhibit local oscillatory behaviours due to their elastic and gravitational potentials, which completely characterise these periodic motions together with the inertial properties of the system. The classification of these periodic behaviours and their geometric characterisation are in an on-going secular debate, which recently led to the so-called eigenmanifold theory. The eigenmanifold characterises nonlinear oscillations as a generalisation of linear eigenspaces. With the motivation of performing periodic tasks efficiently, we use tools coming from this theory to construct an optimization problem aimed at inducing desired closed-loop oscillations through a state feedback law. We solve the constructed optimization problem via gradient-descent methods involving neural networks. Extensive simulations show the validity of the approach.
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Artificial intelligence(AI) systems based on deep neural networks (DNNs) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly used to solve critical problems in bioinformatics, biomedical informatics, and precision medicine. However, complex DNN or ML models that are unavoidably opaque and perceived as black-box methods, may not be able to explain why and how they make certain decisions. Such black-box models are difficult to comprehend not only for targeted users and decision-makers but also for AI developers. Besides, in sensitive areas like healthcare, explainability and accountability are not only desirable properties of AI but also legal requirements -- especially when AI may have significant impacts on human lives. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is an emerging field that aims to mitigate the opaqueness of black-box models and make it possible to interpret how AI systems make their decisions with transparency. An interpretable ML model can explain how it makes predictions and which factors affect the model's outcomes. The majority of state-of-the-art interpretable ML methods have been developed in a domain-agnostic way and originate from computer vision, automated reasoning, or even statistics. Many of these methods cannot be directly applied to bioinformatics problems, without prior customization, extension, and domain adoption. In this paper, we discuss the importance of explainability with a focus on bioinformatics. We analyse and comprehensively overview of model-specific and model-agnostic interpretable ML methods and tools. Via several case studies covering bioimaging, cancer genomics, and biomedical text mining, we show how bioinformatics research could benefit from XAI methods and how they could help improve decision fairness.
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Generic Object Tracking (GOT) is the problem of tracking target objects, specified by bounding boxes in the first frame of a video. While the task has received much attention in the last decades, researchers have almost exclusively focused on the single object setting. Multi-object GOT benefits from a wider applicability, rendering it more attractive in real-world applications. We attribute the lack of research interest into this problem to the absence of suitable benchmarks. In this work, we introduce a new large-scale GOT benchmark, LaGOT, containing multiple annotated target objects per sequence. Our benchmark allows researchers to tackle key remaining challenges in GOT, aiming to increase robustness and reduce computation through joint tracking of multiple objects simultaneously. Furthermore, we propose a Transformer-based GOT tracker TaMOS capable of joint processing of multiple objects through shared computation. TaMOs achieves a 4x faster run-time in case of 10 concurrent objects compared to tracking each object independently and outperforms existing single object trackers on our new benchmark. Finally, TaMOs achieves highly competitive results on single-object GOT datasets, setting a new state-of-the-art on TrackingNet with a success rate AUC of 84.4%. Our benchmark, code, and trained models will be made publicly available.
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In recent years the applications of machine learning models have increased rapidly, due to the large amount of available data and technological progress.While some domains like web analysis can benefit from this with only minor restrictions, other fields like in medicine with patient data are strongerregulated. In particular \emph{data privacy} plays an important role as recently highlighted by the trustworthy AI initiative of the EU or general privacy regulations in legislation. Another major challenge is, that the required training \emph{data is} often \emph{distributed} in terms of features or samples and unavailable for classicalbatch learning approaches. In 2016 Google came up with a framework, called \emph{Federated Learning} to solve both of these problems. We provide a brief overview on existing Methods and Applications in the field of vertical and horizontal \emph{Federated Learning}, as well as \emph{Fderated Transfer Learning}.
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Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.
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State-of-the-art machine translation evaluation metrics are based on black-box language models. Hence, recent works consider their explainability with the goals of better understandability for humans and better metric analysis, including failure cases. In contrast, we explicitly leverage explanations to boost the metrics' performance. In particular, we perceive explanations as word-level scores, which we convert, via power means, into sentence-level scores. We combine this sentence-level score with the original metric to obtain a better metric. Our extensive evaluation and analysis across 5 datasets, 5 metrics and 4 explainability techniques shows that some configurations reliably improve the original metrics' correlation with human judgment. On two held datasets for testing, we obtain improvements in 15/18 resp. 4/4 cases. The gains in Pearson correlation are up to 0.032 resp. 0.055. We make our code available.
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